How big is this mess? Lets invent!
As I’ve stated previously, I think the democrats have already lost this election. I am hoping I am wrong, I am hoping I have jumped the gun, but the realist in me tells me otherwise. The simple fact of the matter is that Hillary supporters hate Obama supporters and Obama supporters hate Hillary supporters. This is good news McCain, and bad news for the rest of us.
I think Hillary has the bigger obstacle to conquer if she were to steal the nomination with super delegates. Basically, she will have hoodwinked all of the black voters again, during what is the first time in their lifetime (no matter how old or young) that they actually feel like they have a legit shot at the presidency with a person that is the same color as them. I, a silly white boy from suburban Connecticut, can even see how this will make them disenfranchised and either not vote or vote for McCain out of anger. I’m stereotyping, of course, because I am lumping “the black vote” into a single entity. I don’t mean to do that, and there will be exceptions, but I mean really, would you be shocked if that was the reaction? And wouldn’t it be justified of them to do?
And the fact of the matter is that a democrat can’t win without the black vote. I don’t care how many working moms Hillary pulls in, if the black vote isn’t behind her she will lose.
But, I’ve already talked about this. And I am constantly thinking about this. I’m constantly pissed about this. Earlier today I came across a thread on a video game message board I post at, it’s all adults, of all different walks of life, races, whatever. But the post was about how it’s been 5 years since Bush in front of the mission accomplished sign. Then the thread just sort of went on a tirade about Bush and the state of our nation. How on September 12th, 2001 the world was completely on our side, felt our pain, wanted to help. And how Bush squandered all of that. How we came out of the Clinton years (TAX AND SPEND LIBERALS OMFG!) with a surplus and how we now have an insane deficit. How the dollar is down the shitter. How the housing market is in shambles. Basically, how bad everything is. But there was one guy, a die hard republican, that said he would vote for Bush again if he could. And that got me thinking.
Right now McCain is getting a free ride. No one cares about him, it’s all about Obama and Hillary. So he gets to go do these nice photo ops, look stately, and give speeches which don’t get much negative reaction at all because no one cares about him (meanwhile we are talking about flag pins on Obama or how Hillary’s pants suits make her a better candidate). McCain won the primary pretty easily, but everyone must admit it wasn’t an all star field. Giuliani had what might go down as the worst campaign strategy ever. Ron Paul was a pot head’s pipe dream. Mitt Romney was so much a politician that I think he might be a Lockheed martin robot. Huckabee didn’t believe in evolution.
So McCain won convincingly, but all we heard about while this was happening was that republicans weren’t happy with him as a candidate. He wasn’t right wing enough, he worked with democrats too much, he was too soft on certain issues. It was bizarre to hear so many complaints about a man who wrapped up the race rather quickly. But as Hillary/Obama mania makes its march towards summer even that talk has died down.
But, what if Bush could run again. What if the rule for presidents was 3 terms. What if it was McCain vs Bush duking it out for the nomination. It’s a hypothetical, but the rules are simple. Hypothetically a president can have 3 terms (and always could, so this isn’t new or decreed by Bush himself) but everything else about reality was the same.
So we would be sitting here with a 2 time incumbent (which would make him a shoe in for getting the nomination again) but also a man that has the lowest approval ratings in the history of our country.
It would be really interesting to see how that would have played out. Would republicans themselves be so sick of Bush that they would go for McCain? Or would McCain’s weakness with the base of the party (who I assume are the last 29% of people in the country who approve of Bush) be too much of a detriment that he couldn’t overtake him.
I mean the question itself is simple. Do you think McCain would be a better president than Bush? Why? Why not?
So, uh, yeah. I’m sick of democrats and their train wreck of a nomination process they have going. So I decided to invent hypothetical drama for the republicans. I made a HMB lens about it, asking republicans who they would prefer. Check it out here and put in your two cents.
I dunno that the Black vote will Dry up EN MASSE if Hillary wins, any more than women and Older folks will Disappear EN MASSE if Obama Wins.
McCain gets a free ride for a few More weeks. After all the Votes have been Tallied, regrdless of the delegate Count or who won or is ahead, or whatever, The War on The Republican party begins In earnest.
McCain will be easy Pickin’s, Precisely for the Reasons you mentioned. He hasn’t really had a fight On his Hands, while the Dems will be seasoned toughened Veterans Fighting for their Political lives, just like they have been for several Months.
Hypothetically Speaking, Bush would be The Nominee and McCain would be In no position to fight for the Nomination. At all.
This is no Trainwreck. It’s a fight. One like there hasn’t been in several generations, maybe ever. With any Luck, The Dems will come out of this Ahead. Don’t worry about it….yet.
Later.
The Rhino
mikeytherhino.wordpress.com
My My the despair in your writings is so loud. I do belive the democrats would unite behind whoever is the nominee. The Republicans hated McCain in the begining they seem to have come around him since, I think (hope) it would be the same case with Democrats. Yet because I am an eternal optimist I think I could live with McCain too. Global warming, Immigration, Iraq war strategy, wasteful spending – I agree with him on those issues, foreign policy – I am still questioning his judgements. But Give me McCain any day over Dubya.
On a side note the 29% supporting Bush, wouldn’t know who the President is, they will support Hugo Chavez if he was the President.
Well you are right, I could be shortsighted on this. In this new 24 hour news cycle world outlooks change as quickly as Tucker Carlson picks up and loses jobs. Maybe the anger now (or whenever the end of this nomination problem, I mean process, ends) won’t last long, and McCain will say something stupid and all the disenfranchised voters of whichever candidate that lost would be like “Fuck this guy, I am voting for ____ now because McCain seems like a loon.” And the anger they felt about their candidate losing the nomination process would be gone just like that.
But, looking at history, any party that hasn’t had their nomination settled before the convention has never won. Not for the democrats, not for the republicans, not even for the Whigs! Though, it is a different world now, so who knows.
Will be interesting, if not infuriating, to watch. I know i’ll be tuned in.
I believe the 2008 election would be a historic elction which will determine the US position in this century. I do hope that people will vote the issues and not personalities because it will determine whether or not America will remain a superpower or a second rate power in this century behind China and India.